How speed of residential internet access will develop from now to 2022

How speed of residential internet access will develop from now to 2022 – Commissioned by NLkabel and Cable Europe

The central question in this study is “How will upload and download speed demand have developed by 2022 in the European market for residential internet access?”. Our research focuses on consumers in the Netherlands and other West European countries with highly developed broadband markets. This study is a follow-up to a study performed in 2014 by Dialogic and Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e).

We project that for the period of 2016-2022, annual growth will be equal to 40.5% for downstream and 44.1% for upstream traffic volume. The growth of existing services alone is responsible for a CAGR of 36.6% (upstream) and 31.6% (downstream) respectively.

beyond-fast
The volume growth estimates equal our earlier estimate for the period 2013-2020. We find that our earlier predictions match observed traffic volumes. It appears however that the distribution of downstream and upstream traffic over the course of a day both has become more uniform compared to our measurements in 2014. In 2016, consumers on average take 16.5 hours to upload 80% and 14.5 hours to download 80% of their daily traffic volume, which is longer than observed in 2014. As a result, while volumes grow, the required speeds grow less than expected earlier.

Figure 1 shows that an average subscription will have a sufficient provisioned downstream speed of about 355 Mbit/s in 2020 (compared to 44 Mbit/s in 2016) and an average sufficient provisioned upstream speed of 37 Mbit/s. Table 1 below shows the sufficient speeds for different user groups.

Between 2016 and 2022 annual growth will amount to 40.5% for downstream and 44.1% for upstream traffic volume. The growth of existing services alone is responsible for a CAGR of 36.6% (upstream) and 31.6% (downstream) respectively. Download the report

Download the PDF graphic here

Source:Nklabel Press Filing

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